Jeb Bush Fires Back at Trump, but Is Anyone Listening?
Despite the sizzling Summer of Trump, Jeb Bush and the rest of the Republican establishment still don’t get it.
Bush just released an 80-second video entitled “The Real Donald Trump”, as flagged by Mike Allen in his Politico Playbook note this morning, in a slick effort to attack Trump by using his own words against him. That’s a classic campaign tactic, of course, and the effort by the Bush campaign is aimed at painting the bombastic real estate mogul from New York as a fake conservative – someone whose core values and views are anathema to Republicans in Iowa, where the Real Clear Politics poll average puts Trump in the lead for the GOP Caucuses with 21.3 percent.
Related: Two New Polls Show Exactly Why Donald Trump Is Winning
Here’s a sampling from the video:
Talking to Tim Russert on Meet the Press, 1999:
- “I’ve lived in New York City and Manhattan all my life, so you know my views are a little bit different than if I lived in Iowa.”
- “I am very pro-choice. I am pro-choice in every respect.”
From a 1999 Fox News clip:
- “As far as single-payer [heathcare system], it works in Canada. It works incredibly well in Scotland.”
Talking to Wolf Blitzer on CNN:
- Who would you like representing the United States in a deal with Iran? “I think Hillary would do a good job.”
- Do you identify more as a Democrat or a Republican? “Well, you’d be shocked if I said that in many cases I probably identify more as a Democrat.”
From a 2001 Fox News clip:
- “Hillary Clinton is a terrific woman. I’m a little biased because I’ve known her for years.”
Some of the clips are 15 years old or older and show Trump for what he was: a New Yorker with unremarkable New York liberal/centrist positions on a lot of issues.
Related: Fiorina PAC: CNN and GOP Are Conspiring Against Carly
The big question for Bush and other Republican politicians in the race is: Does it matter that much where Trump once stood or even where he now stands? If it doesn’t, that is going to make taking him down even more difficult.
What Trump is selling is unvarnished authenticity to an electorate tired of politicians who try to be all things to all people. You’re not going to catch Trump courting the gun crowd by saying he likes to hunt small varmints, like the patrician Mitt Romney did. Or donning a Rocky the Squirrel hat and riding around in a tank like Mike Dukakis did in 1988 to try to show he could be a credible commander-in-chief.
Mad-as-hell voters are sick of phoniness and goofy photo ops. When will the career politicians get that?
The High Cost of Child Poverty
Childhood poverty cost $1.03 trillion in 2015, including the loss of economic productivity, increased spending on health care and increased crime rates, according to a recent study in the journal Social Work Research. That annual cost represents about 5.4 percent of U.S. GDP. “It is estimated that for every dollar spent on reducing childhood poverty, the country would save at least $7 with respect to the economic costs of poverty,” says Mark R. Rank, a co-author of the study and professor of social welfare at Washington University in St. Louis. (Futurity)
Do You Know What Your Tax Rate Is?
Complaining about taxes is a favorite American pastime, and the grumbling might reach its annual peak right about now, as tax day approaches. But new research from Michigan State University highlighted by the Money magazine website finds that Americans — or at least Michiganders — dramatically overstate their average tax rate.
In a survey of 978 adults in the Wolverine State, almost 220 people said they didn’t know what percentage of their income went to federal taxes. Of the people who did provide an answer, almost 85 percent overstated their actual rate, sometimes by a large margin. On average, those taxpayers said they pay 25.5 percent of their income in federal taxes. But the study’s authors estimated that their actual average tax rate was just under 14 percent.
The large number of people who didn’t want to venture a guess as to their tax rate and the even larger number who were wildly off both suggest to the researchers “that a very substantial portion of the population is uninformed or misinformed about average federal income-tax rates.”
Why don’t we know what we’re paying?
Part of the answer may be that our tax system is complicated and many of us rely on professionals or specialized software to prepare our filings. Money’s Ian Salisbury notes that taxpayers in the survey who relied on that kind of help tended to be further off in their estimates, after controlling for other factors.
Also, many people likely don’t understand the different types of taxes they pay. While the survey asked specifically about federal taxes, the tax rates people provided more closely matched their total tax rate, including federal, state, local and payroll taxes.
But our politics likely play a role here as well. People who believe that taxes on households like theirs should be lower and those who believe tax dollars are spent ineffectively tended to overstate their tax rates more.
“Since the time of Ronald Reagan, American[s] have been inundated with messages about how high taxes are,” one of the study’s authors told Salisbury. “The notion they are too high has become deeply ingrained.”
Wealthy Investors Are Worried About Washington, and the Debt
A new survey by the Spectrem Group, a market research firm, finds that almost 80 percent of investors with net worth between $100,000 and $25 million (not including their home) say that the U.S. political environment is their biggest concern, followed by government gridlock (76 percent) and the national debt (75 percent).
Trump’s Push to Reverse Parts of $1.3 Trillion Spending Bill May Be DOA
At least two key Republican senators are unlikely to support an effort to roll back parts of the $1.3. trillion spending bill passed by Congress last month, The Washington Post’s Mike DeBonis reported Monday evening. While aides to President Trump are working with House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) on a package of spending cuts, Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) expressed opposition to the idea, meaning a rescission bill might not be able to get a simple majority vote in the Senate. And Roll Call reports that other Republican senators have expressed significant skepticism, too. “It’s going nowhere,” Sen. Lindsey Graham said.
Goldman Sees Profit in the Tax Cuts
David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, said in a note to clients Friday cited by CNBC that companies in the S&P 500 can expect to see a boost in return on equity (ROE) thanks to the tax cuts. Return on equity should hit the highest level since 2007, Kostin said, providing a strong tailwind for stock prices even as uncertainty grows about possible conflicts over trade.
Return on equity, defined as the amount of net income returned as a percentage of shareholders’ equity, rose to 16.3 percent in 2016, and Kostin is forecasting an increase to 17.6 percent in 2018. "The reduction in the corporate tax rate alone will boost ROE by roughly 70 [basis points], outweighing margin pressures from rising labor, commodity, and borrow costs," Kostin wrote.
