Automakers Are Having a Record Year, but Here’s a Trend that Should Worry Them
U.S. auto sales closed out the summer on a positive note, topping estimates and casting some rosy light on the health of the American consumer. Recording its best August since 2003, the auto industry is on pace to sell 17.8 vehicles in 2015, well ahead of expectations of 17.3 million. If the numbers hold up, 2015 will be the best year ever for U.S. auto sales, beating the 17.4 million mark set in 2000.
The general consensus is that auto industry is in pretty good shape these days. Gas prices and interest rates are low, boosting the market for cars and light trucks. More than 2 million jobs were added to the U.S. economy in the past year, and more jobs is usually good news for auto sales. The unemployment rate has been trending lower for five years, sitting at a relatively healthy 5.3 percent in July.
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As with any statistic, though, there’s more than one way to look at the situation. Sure, auto sales are climbing as the economy gets stronger and more Americans hit their local car dealers’ lots. At least to some degree, though, higher auto sales should be expected just as a result of U.S. population growth. And those rising monthly sales figures are masking a continuing trend that is more worrisome for the auto industry: per capita auto sales are still in a long-term decline, even including the solid growth the industry has seen since the end of the recession. Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives did the math and made a graph:
According to Short’s analysis, the peak year for per capita auto sales in the U.S. was 1978. As the red line in the graph shows, the trend is negative since then.
In the graph, per capita auto sales in January, 1976, were defined as 100; the readings in the index since then are relative to that 1976 sales level. As you can see, the index moves higher until August of 1978, when per capita auto sales were up nearly 20 percent over 1976. Since then, per capita auto sales have fallen, reaching a low in 2009 that was nearly 50 percent lower than 1976. Since 2009, per capita auto sales have risen nicely, but are still more than 15 percent below peak.
What could explain the negative trend? Two factors come to mind. First, demographics. It has been widely reported that the millennial generation is less interested in owning cars for a variety of reasons, ranging from a weak economy to a cultural shift away from suburban life. However, the data on millennial car purchases is ambiguous; recently, millennials have started buying cars in volumes that look a lot like their elders. And even if millennials are less interested in buying cars, their preferences can’t explain a shift that began in the 1970s, before they were born.
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The other factor that may explain the trend is income inequality. A study of car ownership by the Carnegie Foundation found that countries with higher income inequality have fewer cars per capita. The logic is simple: As more income is claimed by the wealthy, there’s less to go around for everyone else. And that means there’s less money for middle and lower income groups to buy and maintain automobiles, among other things.
Here’s a chart of the Gini index for the U.S. since 1947. (The Gini Index is a widely-used measure of income inequality. A higher Gini number means higher inequality.) Note that the Gini reading started climbing in the late ‘70s – the same time when per capita car ownership in the U.S. began to fall.
This chart tells us, not for the first time, that the U.S. has experienced more income inequality since the 1970s. Combined with the per capita auto sales data above, it suggests that as the rich have gotten richer and everyone else has struggled to keep up, car ownership has suffered. Although this is by no means proof of the relationship between income inequality and per capita car ownership over the last 40 years, it hints at an interesting theory – and suggests that the auto industry has good reason to be concerned about growing inequality in the U.S.
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Why You Might Want to Cancel That Restaurant Reservation
The cost of dining out rose 3 percent in May year-over-year, while the amount paid to eat at home inched up just 0.6 percent. The growing disparity in prices could prompt consumers to abandon restaurants for home-cooked meals, according to a report today by Bloomberg.
“Eating in hasn’t been this attractive compared to dining out since 2010,” Bloomberg reports. That’s good news for consumers worried about their budgets, but could be a problem for restaurants’ bottom lines.
So far, consumers aren’t making the shift. This spring, spending at restaurants and bars totaled more than sales at grocery stores for the first time.
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Part of the reason consumers are sticking with restaurants could be that wages are starting to slowly increase, so consumers have a little more money to spend on meals.
They may also be dining out because it’s often an easier option. Shopping and preparing meals takes time – time that people simply don’t have these days. A quarter of employees say that they are working after the standard work day has ended, and about 40 percent work at least one weekend a month, according to Staples Advantage. That leaves little time for food prep.
Supermarkets have responded to the time-pressed consumer by increasingly offering prepared meals that require little more than reheating at home. The prices for such meals tend to be higher than the cost of their ingredients but less than the price of eating out or ordering in.
Here’s What Consumers Were and Weren’t Buying in June
Retail sales were disappointingly soft in June, continuing a zig-zag pattern of strength and weakness this year. Sales fell 0.3 percent, falling shy of economists’ expectations for a 0.3 percent gain after a 1 percent jump in May. The only spending categories to post decent gains were electronics and appliance stores sales, gas station sales and discount stores.
“In May, retail gains signaled that consumers may have started using their so-called pump price dividend toward purchases of discretionary items,” Chris G. Christopher, Jr., the director of consumer economics at IHS Global Insight, wrote in an email to clients. Now, he added, the retail data “are pointing to a consumer that spends their paycheck in fits and starts.”
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Those fits and starts averaged out to a fairly healthy 2.6 percent annualized increase over April, May and June. “The glass half-full take on consumers is that 2.6 percent is still somewhat better than the 2.3 percent consumption growth we've averaged since the beginning of the current expansion,” J.P. Morgan economist Michael Feroli said in a research note. “The glass half-empty view is that there is now even less evidence of a sharp snapback in spending after an unambiguously disappointing Q1.”
Here’s a breakdown from the Bespoke Investment Group of how different retail categories fared:
7 Personal Details You Should Never Divulge Online
What do the following have in common?
- The name of your favorite movie
- Concert tickets or sporting event passes with a barcode
- Your high school
- Your mother’s maiden name
- The name of your best friend in high school
- Your full birthdate, including the year
- The street address of your childhood home
Basically, any of the answers above can be used to answer common security questions that would allow cyber thieves to gain access to an online banking or credit card account. They can be used to reset your password. That’s why you should never post these details publicly on a social media account. Even the name of a beloved pet or school mascot can be fair game.
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We already know not to post our vacation plans, where we are meeting friends for drinks or dinner, or where our children go to school. But we should be aware that information we post on our social media accounts can be used by others to profile and target us.
This is especially important when you consider that Facebook users admit that as much as 7 percent of their Friend lists, which can easily number 200 or more, are people they’ve never met in person. If you share your address and phone number on Facebook with Friends only, make sure all of your contacts are people you know; otherwise cut them from your list or relegate them to Acquaintance status.
Even if you don’t have a profile on Facebook, chances are your spouse, co-worker, or teenager does. According to the Pew Research Center, half of Internet users who do not use Facebook themselves live with someone who does. Make sure they’re not giving out your personal information too.
Shopping Showdown: Walmart Takes On Amazon’s ‘Prime Day’
In case it wasn’t already perfectly obvious that Walmart is gunning for Amazon, the Bentonville, Ark. giant just kicked up its e-tailing competition.
Walmart announced today that it will also offer thousands of discounts for online purchases on July 15, the same day Amazon plans on hosting its Prime Day shopping extravaganza. And in its blog post announcing the sales, Walmart took a clear swipe at Amazon’s push to have shoppers subscribe to its $99 a year Prime service.
“We’ve heard some retailers are charging $100 to get access to a sale,” the Walmart blog says. “But the idea of asking customers to pay extra in order to save money just doesn’t add up for us. We’re standing up for our customers and everyone else who sees no rhyme or reason for paying a premium to save.”
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Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, is also offering another limited-time deal to boost e-commerce sales. Starting today, customers will receive free standard shipping with online purchases that cost a minimum of $35, instead of the usual $50. The change will be effective for at least 30 days.
In February, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon told analysts on an earnings conference call that the company would invest between $1.2 billion and $1.5 billion in e-commerce throughout the year.
Neither Walmart nor Amazon has released information about specific sale offers yet, so the early hype might prove unwarranted, but the battle is clearly on and now the claws are out.
Update: Amazon responded to Walmart’s gibe with its own accusation. “We’ve heard some retailers are charging higher prices for items in their physical stores than they do for the same items online,” Greg Greeley, vice president of Amazon Prime, wrote in an email to Bloomberg. “The idea of charging your in-store customers more than your online customers doesn’t add up for us.”
We’re All Becoming Distracted Victims of Smartphones
Your phone buzzes at work. You promised yourself you wouldn’t check your phone until you turn in your half-finished assignment that’s due in an hour, so you don’t. But you start to wonder — who is texting you? What does the text say? Your mind wanders.
A new study has found that even when we try to disregard a notification, just being aware of a new message distracts us enough to impair our concentration and hurt our performance. These distractions are equal to actively opening the notification on your mobile device.
A Gallup poll reveals that 81 percent of smartphone users keep their phone in close proximity “almost all the time during waking hours.” Depending on the volume of notifications users receive, keeping a phone so close could lead to a noticeably negative impact on work performance.
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The study adds to the growing list of negative affects smartphones can have on users. Other effects include impaired sleep, increased pressure to communicate with friends and family, and the inability to detach from work.
Smartphones are only going to affect more and more individuals. The number of people who own a smartphone has increased from 35 percent in 2011 to 64 percent in April of this year. Among millennials, 84 percent report owning a smartphone.
As millennials begin to enter the workforce and the number of apps available for download increases, the potential for distraction only grows larger.