'Tax Reform Is Hard. Keeping Tax Reform Is Harder': Highlights from the House Tax Cuts Hearing
The House Ways and Means Committee held a three-hour hearing Wednesday on the effects of the Republican tax overhaul. We tuned in so you wouldn’t have to.
As you might have expected, the hearing was mostly an opportunity for Republicans and Democrats to exercise their messaging on the benefits or dangers of the new law, and for the experts testifying to disagree whether the gains from the law would outweigh the costs. But there was also some consensus that it’s still very early to try to gauge the effects of the law that was signed into effect by President Trump less than five months ago.
“I would emphasize that, despite all the high-quality economic research that’s been done, never before has the best economy on the planet moved from a worldwide system of taxation to a territorial system of taxation. There is no precedent,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum and former director of the Congressional Budget Office. “And in that way we do not really know the magnitude and the pace at which a lot of these [effects] will occur.”
Some key quotes from the hearing:
Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA), ranking Democrat on the committee: “This was not tax reform. This was a tax cut for people at the top. The problem that Republicans hope Americans overlook is the law’s devastating impact on your health care. In search of revenue to pay for corporate cuts, the GOP upended the health care system, causing 13 million Americans to lose their coverage. For others, health insurance premiums will spike by at least 10 percent, which translates to about $2,000 a year of extra costs per year for a family of four. … These new health expenses will dwarf any tax cuts promised to American families. … The fiscal irresponsibility of their law is stunning. Over the next 10 years they add $2.3 trillion to the nation’s debt to finance tax cuts for people at the top – all borrowed money. … When the bill comes due, Republicans intend to cut funding for programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.”
David Farr, chairman and CEO of Emerson, and chairman of the National Association of Manufacturers: “We recently polled the NAM members, and the responses heard back from them on the tax reform are very significant and extremely positive: 86 percent report that they’ve already planned to increase investments, 77 percent report that they’ve already planned to increase hiring, 72 percent report that they’ve already planned to increase wages or benefits.”
Holtz-Eakin: “No, tax cuts don’t pay for themselves. If they did there would be no additional debt from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and there is. The question is, is it worth it? Will the growth and the incentives that come from it be worth the additional federal debt. My judgment on that was yes. Reasonable people can disagree. … When we went into this exercise, there was $10 trillion in debt in the federal baseline, before the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. There was a dangerous rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio. It was my belief, and continues to be my belief, that those problems would not be addressed in a stagnant, slow-growth economy. Those are enormously important problems, and we needed to get growth going so we can also take them on.”
“Quite frankly, it’s not going to be possible to hold onto this beneficial tax reform if you don’t get the spending side under control. Tax reform is hard. Keeping tax reform is harder, and the growth consequences of not fixing the debt outlook are entirely negative and will overwhelm what you’ve done so far.”
Steven Rattner: "We would probably all agree that increases in our national debt of these kinds of orders of magnitude have a number of deleterious effects. First, they push interest rates up. … That not only increases the cost of borrowing for the federal government, it increases the cost of borrowing for private corporations whose debt is priced off of government paper. Secondly, it creates additional pressure on spending inside the budget to the extent anyone is actually trying to control the deficit. … And thirdly, and in my view perhaps most importantly, it’s a terrible intergenerational transfer. We are simply leaving for our children additional trillions of dollars of debt that at some point are going to have to be dealt with, or there are going to have to be very, very substantial cuts in benefits, including programs like Social Security and Medicare, in order to reckon with that.”
Watch Jeb Bush Do His Best Donald Trump Impression with Stephen Colbert
Unless you've been in your own personal media blackout for the last few days, you're probably aware that Stephen Colbert kicked off his new show Tuesday night and that Jeb Bush was one of his first guests. While the maiden voyage of the new “Late Show” has drawn mixed reviews -- “promising, if he relaxes” says USA Today, referring to the host – the show provided plenty of entertaining bits and compelling if somewhat odd moments.
Like much of the show, Colbert’s conversation with Bush was a mixed bag. Both host and guest seemed a bit nervous and some of their lines fell flat. Surprisingly, one of the more entertaining parts of their conversation never made it on air: Colbert had Bush read some text written in the bombastic voice of Donald Trump. Bush was game for the joke, and the results are worth a look.
The fun at Trump's expense starts at the 2:32 mark, when Stephen Colbert refers to the "big, orange elephant in the room."
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Here’s Why Home Prices Are Climbing So Quickly
Want to buy a home but finding slim pickings? Blame the builders.
New home construction has not kept pace with the improving job market in recent years and is part of the reason that housing inventory is so scarce and home prices are growing so quickly, according to a report released today by the National Association of Realtors.
After over-building leading up to the housing bubble, developer laid off workers and scaled back construction by more than 75 percent. After the crash many of those workers migrated to other industries, making it harder for builders to quickly ramp up work. There are also fewer builders now than there were a decade ago, with many going bust in the bubble and others consolidating with competitors.
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While home starts have come back since the recession, the new NAR report finds that in two-thirds of markets homebuilding activity has not kept pace with the number of newly employed workers. In particular, construction of single-family homes remains at less than half its prerecession levels.
Many of the markets with the largest disparity of jobs versus home construction were hit hardest by the housing crisis but have fully rebounded, including San Jose, San Francisco, San Diego and Miami. New York is also among the top cities where home building has not kept pace.
There are several reasons that new home construction has grown so slowly in recent years, including rising construction and labor costs and tight credit. Despite those headwinds, new home construction is expected to grow by more than 25 percent this year.
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Millennials to Employers: Show Us the Money
When it comes to company loyalty, money matters to millennials. Twenty-nine percent of millennials say that a higher salary is the biggest contributor to their loyalty, according to data released Tuesday by the Staples Advantage Workplace Index.
That compares to 20 percent of the overall workforce who place a priority on salary. The difference could be related to the fact that millennials tend to make lower wages than other workers and face higher fixed costs on things like student loans and rent.
Still, the job market is tightening, making it easier for millennials who feel they are underpaid to look elsewhere for work. The unemployment rate for millennials has fallen by nearly 40 percent since its peak in 2010.
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Millennials are willing to work long hours but they want to be able to do so on their own terms. More than half of younger workers said that they work from home after the work day is over, compared to 39 percent of the all workers. Nearly half of millennials said that increased flexibility would improve their happiness.
Other important factors for millennials are office perks such as a gym or free lunches, having an eco-friendly office and a company culture that encourages breaks.
Whether or not they’re happy with their current roles, millennials are looking toward the future with ambition. Seventy percent of those surveyed said they expect to be in a management position in the next five years.
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Gas Prices at an 11-Year Low for Labor Day Weekend
Drivers will be paying less at the pump as we head into one of the largest travel weekends of the year. Gas prices over Labor Day weekend haven’t been this low since 2004.
The national average price of gas is currently $2.44 per gallon, 99 cents less than this time last year, according to AAA. The average consumer can expect to save $15 to $25 on each trip to the gas station.
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AAA estimates that 35.5 million people are planning to travel this weekend, a 1 percent increase from last year. The majority of travelers, 30.4 million, are expected to drive to their destinations, a rise of 1.1 percent from last year.
Gasoline prices are moving lower thanks to the falling price of crude oil. Oil has been hit by worries over economic growth in emerging markets, Iranian oil flooding the market and crude oil inventories rising due to economic and weather factors, a U.S. Energy Information Administration report finds.
For drivers, there’s more good news ahead. AAA expects gas prices to keep falling, with gas selling for $2 or less a gallon by Christmas in many parts of the U.S.
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SAT Scores Drop to Lowest Levels in a Decade
Student scores on the SAT have slipped to the lowest level in 10 years, according to new statistics from the College Board, again raising questions about education-reform efforts meant to improve student performance in high schools.
Just under 1.7 million students took the test this year, more than ever before. Only 41.9 percent of them reached the “SAT Benchmark” score of 1550, which indicates whether an individual is prepared for college or a career. Based on the SAT’s measure, more than 1 million students are not ready for college or for work.
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The average score for high-schoolers in the class of 2015 was 1490 out of a possible 2400, down 7 points from last year. The three sections of the test — reading, writing, and math — all saw declines of at least two points.
As has been the pattern for years, certain demographic groups performed better than others. Whites and Asians, on average, received higher scores than blacks and Latinos. Students from higher-earning families received higher scores than those from families with lower income. But scores among all demographic groups except for Asians went down.
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The low scores are an indication that improved testing scores for elementary school students aren’t translating to gains by high-schoolers. The stark contrast in scores among racial and ethnic groups may also be a sign of systemic problems that remain a barrier to educational success. Since 2006, the scores among white students have fallen six points, pulling the average down to 1,576. The average scores for black students have dropped 14 points to 1,277.
The College Board plans to introduce a new SAT exam next year. Changes will include more of a focus on math, fewer questions on vocabulary words and an elimination of the penalty for guessing. The idea, the College Board has said, is to make the test more about what students learn in high school and the skills that college will require.
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