'Tax Reform Is Hard. Keeping Tax Reform Is Harder': Highlights from the House Tax Cuts Hearing
The House Ways and Means Committee held a three-hour hearing Wednesday on the effects of the Republican tax overhaul. We tuned in so you wouldn’t have to.
As you might have expected, the hearing was mostly an opportunity for Republicans and Democrats to exercise their messaging on the benefits or dangers of the new law, and for the experts testifying to disagree whether the gains from the law would outweigh the costs. But there was also some consensus that it’s still very early to try to gauge the effects of the law that was signed into effect by President Trump less than five months ago.
“I would emphasize that, despite all the high-quality economic research that’s been done, never before has the best economy on the planet moved from a worldwide system of taxation to a territorial system of taxation. There is no precedent,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum and former director of the Congressional Budget Office. “And in that way we do not really know the magnitude and the pace at which a lot of these [effects] will occur.”
Some key quotes from the hearing:
Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA), ranking Democrat on the committee: “This was not tax reform. This was a tax cut for people at the top. The problem that Republicans hope Americans overlook is the law’s devastating impact on your health care. In search of revenue to pay for corporate cuts, the GOP upended the health care system, causing 13 million Americans to lose their coverage. For others, health insurance premiums will spike by at least 10 percent, which translates to about $2,000 a year of extra costs per year for a family of four. … These new health expenses will dwarf any tax cuts promised to American families. … The fiscal irresponsibility of their law is stunning. Over the next 10 years they add $2.3 trillion to the nation’s debt to finance tax cuts for people at the top – all borrowed money. … When the bill comes due, Republicans intend to cut funding for programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.”
David Farr, chairman and CEO of Emerson, and chairman of the National Association of Manufacturers: “We recently polled the NAM members, and the responses heard back from them on the tax reform are very significant and extremely positive: 86 percent report that they’ve already planned to increase investments, 77 percent report that they’ve already planned to increase hiring, 72 percent report that they’ve already planned to increase wages or benefits.”
Holtz-Eakin: “No, tax cuts don’t pay for themselves. If they did there would be no additional debt from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and there is. The question is, is it worth it? Will the growth and the incentives that come from it be worth the additional federal debt. My judgment on that was yes. Reasonable people can disagree. … When we went into this exercise, there was $10 trillion in debt in the federal baseline, before the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. There was a dangerous rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio. It was my belief, and continues to be my belief, that those problems would not be addressed in a stagnant, slow-growth economy. Those are enormously important problems, and we needed to get growth going so we can also take them on.”
“Quite frankly, it’s not going to be possible to hold onto this beneficial tax reform if you don’t get the spending side under control. Tax reform is hard. Keeping tax reform is harder, and the growth consequences of not fixing the debt outlook are entirely negative and will overwhelm what you’ve done so far.”
Steven Rattner: "We would probably all agree that increases in our national debt of these kinds of orders of magnitude have a number of deleterious effects. First, they push interest rates up. … That not only increases the cost of borrowing for the federal government, it increases the cost of borrowing for private corporations whose debt is priced off of government paper. Secondly, it creates additional pressure on spending inside the budget to the extent anyone is actually trying to control the deficit. … And thirdly, and in my view perhaps most importantly, it’s a terrible intergenerational transfer. We are simply leaving for our children additional trillions of dollars of debt that at some point are going to have to be dealt with, or there are going to have to be very, very substantial cuts in benefits, including programs like Social Security and Medicare, in order to reckon with that.”
Why You Might Want to Cancel That Restaurant Reservation
The cost of dining out rose 3 percent in May year-over-year, while the amount paid to eat at home inched up just 0.6 percent. The growing disparity in prices could prompt consumers to abandon restaurants for home-cooked meals, according to a report today by Bloomberg.
“Eating in hasn’t been this attractive compared to dining out since 2010,” Bloomberg reports. That’s good news for consumers worried about their budgets, but could be a problem for restaurants’ bottom lines.
So far, consumers aren’t making the shift. This spring, spending at restaurants and bars totaled more than sales at grocery stores for the first time.
Related: The 11 Worst Fast Food Restaurants in America
Part of the reason consumers are sticking with restaurants could be that wages are starting to slowly increase, so consumers have a little more money to spend on meals.
They may also be dining out because it’s often an easier option. Shopping and preparing meals takes time – time that people simply don’t have these days. A quarter of employees say that they are working after the standard work day has ended, and about 40 percent work at least one weekend a month, according to Staples Advantage. That leaves little time for food prep.
Supermarkets have responded to the time-pressed consumer by increasingly offering prepared meals that require little more than reheating at home. The prices for such meals tend to be higher than the cost of their ingredients but less than the price of eating out or ordering in.
Here’s What Consumers Were and Weren’t Buying in June
Retail sales were disappointingly soft in June, continuing a zig-zag pattern of strength and weakness this year. Sales fell 0.3 percent, falling shy of economists’ expectations for a 0.3 percent gain after a 1 percent jump in May. The only spending categories to post decent gains were electronics and appliance stores sales, gas station sales and discount stores.
“In May, retail gains signaled that consumers may have started using their so-called pump price dividend toward purchases of discretionary items,” Chris G. Christopher, Jr., the director of consumer economics at IHS Global Insight, wrote in an email to clients. Now, he added, the retail data “are pointing to a consumer that spends their paycheck in fits and starts.”
Related: What the U.S. Must Do to Avoid Another Financial Crisis
Those fits and starts averaged out to a fairly healthy 2.6 percent annualized increase over April, May and June. “The glass half-full take on consumers is that 2.6 percent is still somewhat better than the 2.3 percent consumption growth we've averaged since the beginning of the current expansion,” J.P. Morgan economist Michael Feroli said in a research note. “The glass half-empty view is that there is now even less evidence of a sharp snapback in spending after an unambiguously disappointing Q1.”
Here’s a breakdown from the Bespoke Investment Group of how different retail categories fared:
7 Personal Details You Should Never Divulge Online
What do the following have in common?
- The name of your favorite movie
- Concert tickets or sporting event passes with a barcode
- Your high school
- Your mother’s maiden name
- The name of your best friend in high school
- Your full birthdate, including the year
- The street address of your childhood home
Basically, any of the answers above can be used to answer common security questions that would allow cyber thieves to gain access to an online banking or credit card account. They can be used to reset your password. That’s why you should never post these details publicly on a social media account. Even the name of a beloved pet or school mascot can be fair game.
Related: Think You’ve Been Hacked? 10 Tips to Protect Yourself Now
We already know not to post our vacation plans, where we are meeting friends for drinks or dinner, or where our children go to school. But we should be aware that information we post on our social media accounts can be used by others to profile and target us.
This is especially important when you consider that Facebook users admit that as much as 7 percent of their Friend lists, which can easily number 200 or more, are people they’ve never met in person. If you share your address and phone number on Facebook with Friends only, make sure all of your contacts are people you know; otherwise cut them from your list or relegate them to Acquaintance status.
Even if you don’t have a profile on Facebook, chances are your spouse, co-worker, or teenager does. According to the Pew Research Center, half of Internet users who do not use Facebook themselves live with someone who does. Make sure they’re not giving out your personal information too.
Shopping Showdown: Walmart Takes On Amazon’s ‘Prime Day’
In case it wasn’t already perfectly obvious that Walmart is gunning for Amazon, the Bentonville, Ark. giant just kicked up its e-tailing competition.
Walmart announced today that it will also offer thousands of discounts for online purchases on July 15, the same day Amazon plans on hosting its Prime Day shopping extravaganza. And in its blog post announcing the sales, Walmart took a clear swipe at Amazon’s push to have shoppers subscribe to its $99 a year Prime service.
“We’ve heard some retailers are charging $100 to get access to a sale,” the Walmart blog says. “But the idea of asking customers to pay extra in order to save money just doesn’t add up for us. We’re standing up for our customers and everyone else who sees no rhyme or reason for paying a premium to save.”
Related: Amazon’s Prime Concern—A New Online Blitz by Walmart
Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, is also offering another limited-time deal to boost e-commerce sales. Starting today, customers will receive free standard shipping with online purchases that cost a minimum of $35, instead of the usual $50. The change will be effective for at least 30 days.
In February, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon told analysts on an earnings conference call that the company would invest between $1.2 billion and $1.5 billion in e-commerce throughout the year.
Neither Walmart nor Amazon has released information about specific sale offers yet, so the early hype might prove unwarranted, but the battle is clearly on and now the claws are out.
Update: Amazon responded to Walmart’s gibe with its own accusation. “We’ve heard some retailers are charging higher prices for items in their physical stores than they do for the same items online,” Greg Greeley, vice president of Amazon Prime, wrote in an email to Bloomberg. “The idea of charging your in-store customers more than your online customers doesn’t add up for us.”
We’re All Becoming Distracted Victims of Smartphones
Your phone buzzes at work. You promised yourself you wouldn’t check your phone until you turn in your half-finished assignment that’s due in an hour, so you don’t. But you start to wonder — who is texting you? What does the text say? Your mind wanders.
A new study has found that even when we try to disregard a notification, just being aware of a new message distracts us enough to impair our concentration and hurt our performance. These distractions are equal to actively opening the notification on your mobile device.
A Gallup poll reveals that 81 percent of smartphone users keep their phone in close proximity “almost all the time during waking hours.” Depending on the volume of notifications users receive, keeping a phone so close could lead to a noticeably negative impact on work performance.
Related: The New Workplace Trend — Smartphone Mini-Vacations
The study adds to the growing list of negative affects smartphones can have on users. Other effects include impaired sleep, increased pressure to communicate with friends and family, and the inability to detach from work.
Smartphones are only going to affect more and more individuals. The number of people who own a smartphone has increased from 35 percent in 2011 to 64 percent in April of this year. Among millennials, 84 percent report owning a smartphone.
As millennials begin to enter the workforce and the number of apps available for download increases, the potential for distraction only grows larger.