Automakers Are Having a Record Year, but Here’s a Trend that Should Worry Them
U.S. auto sales closed out the summer on a positive note, topping estimates and casting some rosy light on the health of the American consumer. Recording its best August since 2003, the auto industry is on pace to sell 17.8 vehicles in 2015, well ahead of expectations of 17.3 million. If the numbers hold up, 2015 will be the best year ever for U.S. auto sales, beating the 17.4 million mark set in 2000.
The general consensus is that auto industry is in pretty good shape these days. Gas prices and interest rates are low, boosting the market for cars and light trucks. More than 2 million jobs were added to the U.S. economy in the past year, and more jobs is usually good news for auto sales. The unemployment rate has been trending lower for five years, sitting at a relatively healthy 5.3 percent in July.
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As with any statistic, though, there’s more than one way to look at the situation. Sure, auto sales are climbing as the economy gets stronger and more Americans hit their local car dealers’ lots. At least to some degree, though, higher auto sales should be expected just as a result of U.S. population growth. And those rising monthly sales figures are masking a continuing trend that is more worrisome for the auto industry: per capita auto sales are still in a long-term decline, even including the solid growth the industry has seen since the end of the recession. Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives did the math and made a graph:
According to Short’s analysis, the peak year for per capita auto sales in the U.S. was 1978. As the red line in the graph shows, the trend is negative since then.
In the graph, per capita auto sales in January, 1976, were defined as 100; the readings in the index since then are relative to that 1976 sales level. As you can see, the index moves higher until August of 1978, when per capita auto sales were up nearly 20 percent over 1976. Since then, per capita auto sales have fallen, reaching a low in 2009 that was nearly 50 percent lower than 1976. Since 2009, per capita auto sales have risen nicely, but are still more than 15 percent below peak.
What could explain the negative trend? Two factors come to mind. First, demographics. It has been widely reported that the millennial generation is less interested in owning cars for a variety of reasons, ranging from a weak economy to a cultural shift away from suburban life. However, the data on millennial car purchases is ambiguous; recently, millennials have started buying cars in volumes that look a lot like their elders. And even if millennials are less interested in buying cars, their preferences can’t explain a shift that began in the 1970s, before they were born.
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The other factor that may explain the trend is income inequality. A study of car ownership by the Carnegie Foundation found that countries with higher income inequality have fewer cars per capita. The logic is simple: As more income is claimed by the wealthy, there’s less to go around for everyone else. And that means there’s less money for middle and lower income groups to buy and maintain automobiles, among other things.
Here’s a chart of the Gini index for the U.S. since 1947. (The Gini Index is a widely-used measure of income inequality. A higher Gini number means higher inequality.) Note that the Gini reading started climbing in the late ‘70s – the same time when per capita car ownership in the U.S. began to fall.
This chart tells us, not for the first time, that the U.S. has experienced more income inequality since the 1970s. Combined with the per capita auto sales data above, it suggests that as the rich have gotten richer and everyone else has struggled to keep up, car ownership has suffered. Although this is by no means proof of the relationship between income inequality and per capita car ownership over the last 40 years, it hints at an interesting theory – and suggests that the auto industry has good reason to be concerned about growing inequality in the U.S.
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Don’t Feel Like a Chump When You Close on Your New Mortgage
Mortgage closing costs dropped 7 percent over the past year, falling to $1,847 on a $200,000 loan, according to a new analysis by Bankrate.
Typical closing costs varied by state, ranging from $2,163 in Hawaii to $1,613 in Ohio. You can find the average rate for your state in the table below.
Lenders compete for business, so shopping around with at least three mortgage providers can help you reduce the fees associated with your loan. “Homebuyers have more say over closing costs than they think,” Bankrate Senior Mortgage Analyst Holden Lewis said in a statement.
Even as banks lower their mortgage fees, they’re increasing fees in most other categories, according to MoneyRates.com.
While lower mortgage fees are good news for homebuyers and those refinancing their loans, the average saving amount to just $140. That’s not much relative to the total costs associated with buying a house. The average down payment for homebuyers in the first quarter of 2015 was $57,710, for example.
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The costs don’t stop once the buyers move in. On top of mortgage payments, homeowners face an average of more than $6,000 in additional costs related to their house, including homeowners insurance, property taxes and utilities.
The National Association of Realtors expects home prices to increase 6.5 percent this year to a median $221,900, which would put them at the same level as their 2006 record high.
For buyers, better news than the lower mortgage fees is that rates remain relatively low, falling to 3.98 percent last week, per Freddie Mac.
Closing costs | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| State | Average origination fees | Average third-party fees | Average origination plus third-party fees |
| Alabama | $1,066 | $776 | $1,842 |
| Alaska | $935 | $922 | $1,857 |
| Arizona | $1,208 | $761 | $1,969 |
| Arkansas | $1,057 | $760 | $1,817 |
| California | $937 | $896 | $1,834 |
| Colorado | $1,192 | $719 | $1,910 |
| Connecticut | $1,074 | $960 | $2,033 |
| Delaware | $904 | $924 | $1,828 |
| District of Columbia | $1,077 | $718 | $1,794 |
| Florida | $1,028 | $778 | $1,806 |
| Georgia | $1,058 | $821 | $1,879 |
| Hawaii | $1,033 | $1,130 | $2,163 |
| Idaho | $894 | $788 | $1,682 |
| Illinois | $1,080 | $767 | $1,847 |
| Indiana | $1,067 | $770 | $1,837 |
| Iowa | $1,161 | $762 | $1,923 |
| Kansas | $1,047 | $753 | $1,800 |
| Kentucky | $1,060 | $737 | $1,797 |
| Louisiana | $1,060 | $817 | $1,877 |
| Maine | $897 | $830 | $1,727 |
| Maryland | $1,093 | $742 | $1,835 |
| Massachusetts | $905 | $851 | $1,756 |
| Michigan | $1,072 | $746 | $1,818 |
| Minnesota | $1,067 | $689 | $1,757 |
| Mississippi | $1,046 | $837 | $1,884 |
| Missouri | $1,040 | $792 | $1,833 |
| Montana | $1,062 | $855 | $1,917 |
| Nebraska | $1,047 | $770 | $1,817 |
| Nevada | $1,002 | $848 | $1,850 |
| New Hampshire | $1,084 | $750 | $1,835 |
| New Jersey | $1,181 | $913 | $2,094 |
| New Mexico | $1,076 | $876 | $1,952 |
| New York | $1,032 | $879 | $1,911 |
| North Carolina | $1,036 | $875 | $1,911 |
| North Dakota | $1,045 | $791 | $1,836 |
| Ohio | $933 | $681 | $1,613 |
| Oklahoma | $1,027 | $734 | $1,761 |
| Oregon | $1,080 | $785 | $1,864 |
| Pennsylvania | $1,055 | $678 | $1,733 |
| Rhode Island | $1,093 | $802 | $1,896 |
| South Carolina | $1,058 | $837 | $1,895 |
| South Dakota | $1,055 | $704 | $1,759 |
| Tennessee | $1,033 | $773 | $1,806 |
| Texas | $1,031 | $833 | $1,864 |
| Utah | $909 | $788 | $1,697 |
| Vermont | $1,074 | $862 | $1,936 |
| Virginia | $1,050 | $787 | $1,837 |
| Washington | $1,077 | $824 | $1,901 |
| West Virginia | $1,067 | $904 | $1,971 |
| Wisconsin | $1,047 | $723 | $1,770 |
| Wyoming | $874 | $814 | $1,689 |
| Average | $1,041 | $807 | $1,847 |
Bankrate.com surveyed up to 10 lenders in each state in June 2015 and obtained online Good Faith Estimates for a $200,000 mortgage to buy a single-family home with a 20 percent down payment in a prominent city. Costs include fees charged by lenders, as well as third-party fees for services such as appraisals and credit reports. The survey excludes title insurance, title search, taxes, property insurance, association fees, interest and other prepaid items.
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Why Are Nearly 40 Million American Adults Not Using the Internet?
For most of use, the Internet is inescapable. We use the Web for everything from paying bills and writing emails to signing up for health insurance and watching our favorite shows.
However, a surprisingly large number of adults in the U.S. have resisted the siren call of the digital life. According to new data from Pew Research, 15% of the adult U.S. population is not online.
Who makes up this group of Internet naysayers? Here are some highlights:
- Unsurprisingly, adults aged 65 and older make up the largest single age group (39 percent) most likely to say they never go online.
- The higher the level of educational achievement, the greater the likelihood of Internet usage. For adults with less than a high school education, a third do not use the Internet.
- Household income is also a significant factor. Adults in the most affluent households are eight times more likely to use the Internet than adults in households with an income of less than $30,000 per year. Nineteen percent of the non-users cite the high expense of Internet service or owning a computer.
- Americans living in rural areas are twice as likely as individuals in urban or suburban regions to not use the Internet.
- As for race and ethnicity, 20 percent of blacks and 18 percent of Hispanics do not use the Internet, compared with 14 percent of whites and 5 percent of English-speaking Asian-Americans.
- While 34 percent of people who do not use the Internet choose not to, for others it’s not a choice, according to an earlier Pew report.
- Thirty-two percent say the Internet is too complicated or difficult to use.
The Crazy Reason Treasury Department Officials Can’t Get Their Work Done
Treasury Department officials are being driven to distraction these days, but it’s not because of the expiring debt ceiling or other pressing financial controversies.
Instead, loud music from a New Orleans-style street band known as Spread Love has reportedly driven some officials and employees at the Treasury building to wear earphones to block out the noise and even move meetings to other parts of the building to find some peace and quiet.
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“We have to relocate our conference calls,” one Treasury employee told The Washington Post. “We can’t have meetings in that corner of the building anymore. It’s like they’re playing music in the building.”
Members of Spread Love have become fixtures of downtown Washington’s street scene and are collecting generous donations for playing their drums, trombone and other brass instruments. Tourists and other office workers out during their lunch hour appear to love the group, but not so the serious-minded economists and bean counters at the Treasury – especially when the band moves within easy shouting distance at the corner of 15th and G Streets NW.
Treasury Secretary Jack Lew’s staff members aren’t the only ones complaining about the jarring music. Partners and associates at the law firm of Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom find it hard to concentrate on their cases with daily interruptions. It got to the point that the firm dispatched a security guard to offer band members $200 a week if they would play somewhere else. Lonnie Shepard, one of the trombonists, told the newspaper that he laughed at the offer because “We can make that in an hour.”
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Rob Runyan, a spokesperson for the Treasury Department, said that employee complaints have made their way to the office of the assistant secretary for management, Brodi Fontenot, but there really wasn’t much that could be done.
“The band and other street noise are part of the distractions of working in downtown D.C.,” Runyan said in an interview Friday.
Cockroaches, Rats and Mice: These Are the Country’s Most Infested Cities
New York really is the most infested city in the country, at least according to a Bloomberg analysis of Census Bureau data on cockroach, mouse and rat sightings.
The Big Apple doesn’t lead in any of those individual categories. Homes in Tampa, Fla., have the most roaches, and those in Seattle may have the most rats. Philadelphia houses had the most mouse sightings in the country. But when Bloomberg combined all three categories, New York came out with the highest cumulative score.
Perhaps surprising given the economic state of the city, Detroit residents were the least likely to report seeing a mouse, rat or roach.
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The data covered only 25 metro areas, so some large cities like Dallas, Los Angeles and San Francisco don’t appear on the list.
Roaches appear to enjoy nice weather. Nearly 40 percent of homes in Tampa had evidence in roaches in the past year, followed by Houston and Austin. Cities with the fewest roach sightings were Seattle, Minneapolis and Detroit.
Mice, on the other, hand, seem to prefer the northeast. Nearly 20 percent of Philly homes had evidence of mice, followed by Baltimore and Boston. Tampa, Jacksonville, and Las Vegas had the lowest percentage of mouse sightings.
More than 20 percent of homes in Seattle and Austin had rats, with Miami rounding out the top three. Richmond, Va., Hartford, Conn., and Minneapolis had the lowest level of rat sightings.
All those vermin lead to big business. Last year, the U.S. pest control industry generated nearly $7.5 billion in revenue, a 3.5 percent increase year-over-year.
Bloomberg reported that the data also showed a difference in infestation levels of homes with families living below the poverty line and minority families, which were more likely to report evidence of rats and roaches.
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Facebook Is Testing a Solar-Powered Internet-Beaming Drone
Imagine looking up at the sky and seeing a 900 lb. drone the size of Boeing 737 moving in slow circles 11 miles above you. As part of Facebook’s plan to provide Internet access to the 4 billion people who currently lack it, that could soon be the reality for the 10 percent of Earth’s population that lives far from cell towers or fiber optic lines.
Researchers at Facebook’s Connectivity Lab, a division of Facebook’s Internet.org, announced yesterday that the first such drone has been completed as a step toward building a larger fleet. The craft hasn’t been flown yet, but Facebook has been testing versions one-tenth the size over the U.K. and plans on beginning flight tests of the full-size craft before the end of this year.
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The drone, termed Aquila (Latin for “Eagle), is a solar-powered V-shaped carbon fiber craft that will carry equipment such as solar panels and communications gear that can beam down wireless Internet connectivity. Lacking wheels or the ability to climb, the drone will be launched using helium balloons and will be able to fly for 90 days at a time.
One of the biggest breakthroughs in the project has been the team developing a way to increase the data capacity of the lasers involved. The new system allows a ground-based laser to transmit information to a dome on the underside of the plane at 10 GB per second, about 10 times faster than previously thought possible.
Facebook’s mission isn’t without controversy. Worldwide, critics have been questioning many of Internet.org’s practices on privacy, fairness and security grounds. Those opponents fear that users of Internet.org might be monitored through state-run telecoms, in some cases allowing countries to spy on and repress their citizens. In addition, first-time users of the Internet might confuse Facebook for the entire Internet and only receive news and information from the one site.
The flack Internet.org is receiving isn’t the only problem Facebook has to deal with. Rival Google also has a project in the works to bring wireless Internet to rural communities. Their program, called “Project Loon,” involves high-altitude helium balloons that have transmitters attached to them. Although the project hasn’t been launched yet, it’s in more advanced stages than Aquila.
Watch the video from Facebook’s Connectivity Lab: